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NEW TRANSMISSION LINES AND A ‘SMARTER’ ELECTRICAL GRID
Typically, large-scale wind farms and PV solar-energy systems are located far from major areas of population and energy use. Thus, if wind and PV solar energy were widely adopted, new long-distance power-transmission lines would be needed. With utilization rates of only 14.5 percent for PV solar power and 30 to 40 percent for wind power, the costs of transportation would be particularly high, as transmission-line cost is averaged over kilowatt-hours. The cost of power-transmission lines can be substantial, changing the economics of an entire renewable-energy project.

Before the United States commits to the “less-centralized and more consumer-interactive”6 Smart Grid, the future electrical requirements of PV solar energy, wind energy, and electric automobiles must be established.

Smart Grid should be a research-and-development tool for possible mid- and long-term solutions, such as high-temperature superconductivity, visualization and controls, renewable and distributed system integration, and energy storage and power electronics.7

ETHANOL AND BIOMASS
In 2006, the U.S. government passed the Renewable Fuel Standard, which mandated the amount of corn-based ethanol used in gasoline. Ethanol-production capacity was 5.7 billion gal. in 2007. In 2008, additional legislation was passed, raising the ethanol-production mandate to 36 billion gal. by 2022. Europe and other foreign countries followed suit, increasing their requirements for biofuels.

Europe recently announced it is reconsidering its use of biofuel mandates and may reverse its policy, which was based on global-warming and climate-changing emissions. In addition to food shortages, Europe believes the burning of forests to make room for biofuel plants is leading to increased greenhouse gases.

Focus appears to be shifting from corn and soybean feedstocks that compete with food production to cellulosic biomass feedstocks, such as switchgrass, agricultural waste, and forestry residues. However, large land areas still will be required for sufficient quantities to be produced.

Considerable research to develop more cost-effective methods of mass-producing cellulosic biofuels is under way. This will take time, and the final approach will need to be vetted before production facilities are built. Many ethanol-production facilities already in existence are being idled and bankrupted because ethanol is proving to be uneconomical. This is a perfect example of what can happen when research and development are skipped in an effort to save time and money.

WORLD CRUDE OIL
U.S. oil production has declined from a peak of 9.64 million barrels a day in 1970 to an estimated 4.9 million barrels a day in 2008 and been declining at a rate of 15 percent a year. The world’s total oil production appears to have peaked and soon will decline. As T. Boone Pickens has said, “We can’t drill our way out of this crisis.”

The potential for U.S. off-shore oil production includes Alaska and the East, West, and Gulf coasts. Although production from new U.S. off-shore fields cannot be expected for up to 10 years, exploration in feasible areas should begin as soon as possible to quantify proven oil reserves and replace diminishing production.

If oil supplies are to increase, unconventional sources must be tapped. These include:

• Oil from tar sands in Alberta, Canada.
• Coal liquefaction.
• Rocky Mountain oil shale.

Although these unconventional oil sources have major cost advantages because existing pipelines, refineries, automobiles, gasoline stations, burners, etc. can be used, each has limitations and problems.

Conventional oil remains the premier fuel for transportation, and that is unlikely to change anytime soon. Conservation can greatly extend supplies. Unconventional oil is not a short-term solution, and future supplies will be expensive.

NATURAL GAS
Natural gas is the cleanest and most preferred fossil fuel for heating and has been used increasingly for electricity generation. U.S. demand is 23 trillion cu ft, of which 4 trillion cu ft is imported.

Thanks to nearly two decades of development and the use of new technology, unconventional-natural-gas production from the Barnett Shale in Texas has increased tenfold since 2001. Barnett Shale reserves are an estimated 27 trillion cu ft,8 or approximately one year of U.S. consumption.

New technology can be used to develop other shale deposits. Some experts think those deposits could yield as much as 842 trillion cu ft9—a 40-year supply at today’s consumption rate—while others believe they amount to no more than a replacement for existing declining fields. The cheapest source of additional natural-gas supplies is energy conservation.

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